Here is my assessment of the 2 sides. Manpower: Currently, Japan+Indonesia have the advantage when it comes to army size, with their large population and conscription efforts. In exchange for that extra size, Japan's team has less skilled and experienced fighters. The Indonesian forces haven't faced battle until now, while small amounts of Japanese forces have battled in Vladivostok. That fight however wasn't very long. Japan does have to spend troops holding over those lands, which does reduce their strength. With the conscription, their army is worse trained than the POD troops. POD has a lot fewer troops, but hasn't begun mobilization. This gives them the advantage of keeping people in the workforce, to produce weapons. POD has another advantage, with its higher total population, though most of that is farther away. Overall, Japan and Indonesia have the advantage to begin with, but if the war is drug out, POD will be in a better position. Land Forces: Japan's team heavily outnumbers POD in land forces like tanks and armored vehicles, but POD is able to build a lot more, which will allow them to continuously close the distance. With other types of land forces, it is closer to even, with roughly similar overall strength. This gives Japan and Indonesia an early war advantage, but in the long run, they are going to be outproduced. Navy: Japan's team has a large navy, especially with their large amount destroyers. POD has a smaller navy force, but has the advantage of the fight being closer to Oceania, rather than Japan. This means they are able to get more refuels and supplies. Indonesia is close by but its eastern lands are less developed. With pledges from other POD nations, the POD's navy is weaker than Japan's, but Japan has less of an ability to increase naval strength. Overall, Japan and Indonesia have the advantage in the early fight, but as it drags on, they will fall behind POD's production. Air Force: The Japanese and Indonesian air forces together are roughly the same size as the POD air force, though POD's air force is more scattered. This allows Japan to use its extra force to harm Oceania. The problem is that Japan's air force is the majority of their team's air strength, but it is located far away. This gives Oceania an early war advantage, with it evening out as time goes on. Production Capacity: The production capacity of POD is much higher than that of Japan and Indonesia. With Indonesia being likely to take the brunt of the damage, their production capacity will go down. With Japan's aging population and large conscription effort, they will lose most of their available manpower, leading to them to not be able to cover the gap. Because most of the POD nations are farther away from the fighting, they can increase their capacity, and continuously ship supplies to Oceania, giving them a huge advantage, that lets them overcome their other military disadvantages. Logistics: Indonesia has a stark amount of logistics in the east, and in general, which leads to them being less able to send their military to the east. This, along with Japan's distance from the conflict, will lead to a bonus for POD's logistics. Darwin is a major Oceanic hub that can be used as a launching off point, to reach the combat. This is a huge benefit to POD, because it allows easy resupply to the frontline. Most of POD being farther away from the fighting is a double edged sword. They won't get destroyed, but their forces will be farther from home. This means that, while they can't quickly get supplies to the fight, they can make a large amount of supplies. Energy: Both Japan and Indonesia have a large deficit in natural resources, mainly oil. Together, both nations import millions of barrels of oil per week. This critical supply of oil will disappear because of a blockade from Sri Lanka, along with Iran shutting down any Japanese or Indonesian aligned ships getting through. This means they have to dip into their reserves, which harms their long term war efforts. While they do get supplies from Brunei and Thailand, this won't make up for the amount they're losing. In total, they have about 100-150 days worth of oil in reserves, though with extreme rationing it may last for a full year. This estimate is based off of normal consumption but when fighting a war, more is consumed. This means that Japan must get this critical resource from nearby. They can't get it from anywhere past the Pacific. Because of this, Japan is likely to crash and burn, while they desperately try to obtain extra oil, though that is a prediction not fact. POD, being open to the rest of the world, and having Iran on its side means that it has all the oil it can buy. There is concern for them. Uranium is unavailable, because they can't get any through the blockade. They can get the necessary coal from Indonesia, but need more natural gas they can't get. POD has none of those problems, giving them the advantage in all things energy.
Other War Resources: Japan produces enough steel and iron domestically to supply it and its ally in their war effort for the foreseeable future. This is very good for them, but POD too doesn't have any problems with those supplies. Computer chips are a problem for both teams, with Japan able to stop Taiwan's and South Korea's flow of chips. China's fractures chip production won't help either. This leads to a deficit in both teams, though part of POD has enough chips. Overall, both are okay in this category. Blockade: The blockade of Japan's team is POD's biggest advantage. With help from Chile and Florida, POD is able to blockade the Atlantic. For the Indian Ocean, it is relatively simple for POD to set up around there, and let basically nothing through. This means that Japan will be starved of all it doesn't import from China, or produce domestically. This especially harms Indonesia, who has less industry, but has to feed so many people. They lose access to US, Oceanic, Brazilian, and Argentinian supplies. They do get their large amount of imports from Thailand, but China is cut off somewhat by Taiwan, increasing prices for that. The lack of imports will harm them, along with the lack of exports, because they will lose lots of money. Cost-push inflation will strike them, dealing a heavy blow to their economy. This means that Japan must prop up the Indonesian economy, harming their own. Losing at least half a billion dollars in exports means that Japan's economy is rough. This should give a major advantage to POD, because Japan's and Indonesia's economies will be destroyed. Distance: A problem with Japan's efforts against Oceania is the sheer distance from Japan to Oceania. This means that Japan will have to send supplies and troops a very long distance, while Oceania sends supplies to Darwin. Without a blockade, time isn't a problem for Oceania, because supplies can arrive later. Japan doesn't have a chance to capitulate Oceania, so they can wait it out for Japan to crumble. This extra distance increases Japan's need for energy, which they don't have access to. This means that POD can supply Oceania freely, while Japan burns precious time and resources supporting Indonesia. To conclude: Once POD's blockade is set up, and they begin to manufacture whatever they need, they can sit back hold off Japan while Japan gets starved into submission. Then they can defeat Indonesia and succeed in defending themselves. There is no way for Japan and Indonesia to capitulate Oceania, while Indonesia is at risk of collapse. If Japan quickly manages to deal a heavy blow to the nearby POD nations before starving, then they can force peace, but the longer it goes on, the more Japan's chance to lose skyrockets.
